Northern Ireland’s economy is set to grow again in 2010, according to the head of the University of Ulster’s School of Economics.

Mike Smith said he predicted that the Northern Ireland economy would remain fairly flat during 2009 before moderate growth returned next year.

Mr Smith was writing in the latest First Trust Bank Economic Outlook and Business Review.

He said there were now signs that the global downturn may be slackening.

“On the basis of the evidence thus far in 2009, it is not unreasonable to expect a return to positive economic growth here in 2010,” he said.

He said that while some commentators have been vilified when they suggested “green-shoots” of recovery are appearing he believes that there are now signs that the global downturn may be slackening.

“In the US lending between banks has returned to something approaching normal,” he said.

“New housing starts in the US in the first quarter of 2009 have risen sharply by over 20%, albeit from very low levels and retail sales for April have recorded their biggest rise since August 2008.

“Economic activity in China is also starting to pick up. These all point tentatively to some sort of turning point.”

According to new figures from The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) more houses were sold in April than in any month since October 2007.

The average estate agent sold ten properties in April, up from eight in March and a low point of five in August 2008.

Chief executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, Peter Bolton King, said: “What we are beginning to see now are consistent positive indicators that have held firm or improved since the beginning of the year.

“Six months ago people were talking about how British people’s attitude to owning property had changed in the recession.

“The NAEA always said that this was nonsense, and that demand for property remained strong, but confidence in the market had gone.

 ”These figures show that this confidence is returning.”

A new report from the Ulster Bank suggests that the worst of the economic downturn in Northern Ireland has passed.

Although NI’s private sector has seen business activity fall sharply and at a much faster rate than the UK average, there are signs of improvement.

The latest Ulster Bank figures suggest the pace of decline has slowed down.

April’s drop in output was the least marked for eight months and new businesses declined at a much weaker rate, the report states.

The labour market continued to deteriorate, but the number of job losses was less severe than in the six months prior to April.

The bank’s survey of firms – the Purchasing Managers’ Index survey (PMI) – found April had the highest reading for business activity in eight months.

The bank’s economist, Richard Ramsey, said: “A range of indicators, including the PMIs, suggest that the worst is now behind us… the latest survey indicates the highest reading for business activity in eight months.

“This indicates that the pace of economic decline is slowing. That said, the PMI still indicates that NI’s private sector continues to contract at a more rapid rate than any other UK region and is some 10 index points below the UK reading.”

“Meanwhile, the pace of decline in employment levels has also eased and is broadly in line with the UK as a whole. However, this is still consistent with significant job losses across all sectors of the economy.”

Source – www.news.bbc.co.uk